China's Quiet Gas Car Takeover: A Global Threat to Western Automakers
The world is abuzz with China's electric vehicle (EV) dominance, but there's a quieter, more insidious threat lurking in the shadows. While Western governments fret over Chinese EVs, the real concern lies in China's legacy automakers quietly flooding the global market with gasoline-powered cars. These vehicles, once destined for the scrapheap due to the rise of EVs, are now being exported in droves, threatening to displace Western brands in emerging markets.
The numbers are staggering. Since 2020, China has exported approximately three-quarters of its combustion car production, amounting to millions of petrol-engined vehicles. This surge in exports is a direct consequence of China's aggressive EV policies, which have created a surplus of idle gasoline car factories capable of producing 30 million vehicles annually. Instead of idling, these factories are being utilized to meet demand in regions with limited EV infrastructure and even thinner wallets.
Eastern Europe, South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia have become battlegrounds for Chinese automakers. Brands like SAIC, Dongfeng, BAIC, and Changan, once reliant on joint ventures with Western giants like GM, Nissan, and Honda, are now forging their own path. SAIC GM's China sales plummeted from over 1 million annually to a mere 400,000, but their exports tell a different story. SAIC exported over a million vehicles last year, while Chery's global sales skyrocketed from 700,000 in 2020 to over 2.5 million in 2024, with the majority being gasoline-powered.
The impact on Western automakers is profound. Chinese brands are gaining traction in Mexico, South Africa, Chile, and Uruguay, stealing customers from established names like Chevrolet and Ford. In Mexico, Chinese brands are on track for a 14% market share, while in South Africa, they control 16% of the market with minimal EV sales. In Chile, a third of all new cars are Chinese, and most of them guzzle gasoline.
The future looks bleak for Western automakers. Consultancy forecasts predict that Chinese automakers will add four million more overseas sales by 2030. This, combined with domestic growth, could give China nearly one-third of the global auto market within five years. The takeover won't stop there, and the implications for Western brands are dire. As the world grapples with the rise of Chinese EVs, the quiet invasion of gas cars from China threatens to reshape the automotive landscape, leaving Western automakers scrambling to adapt to this new reality.
