The brutal reality of political leadership is laid bare once again, and this time, the Liberals are at the center of the storm. But here's where it gets controversial: Could the return of Josh Frydenberg be the lifeline the party desperately needs? Let’s dive into the turmoil that’s gripping the Liberals and explore whether a familiar face could turn their fortunes around.
No matter how often we witness a leader being publicly dismantled, the cruelty of it never fails to shock. The latest victim of this political bloodsport is Sussan Ley, whose leadership is under siege. Victorian senator Sarah Henderson, a staunch right-winger and vocal opponent of net zero, didn’t hold back on Friday. ‘Honestly, I believe Sussan is losing support,’ she declared. ‘But I do believe in miracles—we can turn things around.’ Yet, her words belie her true intentions. Henderson isn’t banking on miracles; she wants Ley out. However, she stopped short of calling for a leadership spill at the next Liberal Parliamentary Party meeting, a move that would have been the logical next step.
Most observers agree that Ley’s days as leader are numbered, though the timing remains uncertain. Ousting the party’s first female leader this year would be seen as indecent, and for now, it’s not expected. Still, the pieces are slowly falling into place.
Henderson’s attack sparked the predictable backlash, with colleagues rallying behind Ley. Angus Taylor, her main rival, insisted he wasn’t mounting a challenge. Notably, Jane Hume, who has publicly criticized Ley after being overlooked for a front bench role, offered her support. ‘Sussan has been consistent in her messaging,’ Hume said. ‘She wants to lower emissions, but not at any cost.’ Yet, Hume, a moderate and net zero advocate, voted for Taylor—a subtle reminder of the party’s internal divisions.
The coming week will be a crucible for Ley and the opposition. If she navigates it successfully, her position will stabilize, though not permanently. Fail, and the calls for her removal will grow louder. And this is the part most people miss: The Liberals’ leadership crisis isn’t just about Ley; it’s about the party’s long-term viability.
With surgical precision, the Liberals have outlined a timeline to decide their stance on net zero. On Wednesday, the party room will meet for a general discussion. On Thursday, shadow ministers will gather, with energy spokesman Dan Tehan presenting a submission on energy and emissions policy. Attendance is mandatory—no dialing in unless you’re sick or overseas on official business. Some are grumbling about the inconvenience.
Following these meetings, a committee of three senior Liberals and three senior Nationals will hash out a ‘joint Coalition position.’ This proposal will then go to a virtual joint party meeting on Sunday for endorsement, provided both parties agree. But if they can’t reach a consensus? The Coalition could fracture, or they might simply agree to disagree. The Nationals have already abandoned net zero, and as of Friday, the Liberals’ position remains unclear. Their 2050 net zero commitment is dead, leaving them to choose between ignoring it entirely or framing it as a distant aspiration.
Stepping back from the net zero debacle and Ley’s precarious position, it’s evident the Liberals face a deeper, more systemic leadership crisis. Replacing Ley with Taylor or even Andrew Hastie (a long shot) won’t solve their problems. Few believe any of them could lead the Liberals back to power, and no other candidate in the parliamentary party stands out.
With the Liberals staring down at least two terms in opposition, one question looms large: Could Josh Frydenberg’s return to parliament change the game? Defeated in Kooyong in 2022 by teal candidate Monique Ryan, Frydenberg now holds a senior role in banking. Yet, his political ambitions are no secret. He’s ensured his supporters control the Liberal party in Kooyong, and his autobiography, co-written with Gideon Haigh, is due next year. If he hasn’t clarified his intentions by then, speculation will reach a fever pitch.
At this year’s election, Ryan narrowly defeated Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer, who is now running for preselection in the state seat of Malvern. This could remove the awkward scenario of Frydenberg sidelining a woman who came so close. Kooyong, with its high proportion of renters, is a tough electorate for Liberals, though recent redistributions have tilted it slightly in their favor. While Ryan would be a formidable opponent, Frydenberg’s name recognition—having won the seat four times—could be a game-changer.
For Frydenberg, a return to politics would be a high-stakes gamble. Political consultant Kos Samaras identifies three major challenges: winning the seat, gaining support from a party dominated by regional conservatives, and convincing them to adopt a moderate platform that appeals to urban voters. For the Liberals, Frydenberg’s return would expand their leadership options, attract high-profile candidates, and bolster business support.
But would Frydenberg, as leader, be a vote-winner? Ideologically centrist, he’s well-equipped to lead economic debates. The risk lies in being seen as a throwback to the past. Yet, compared to the current Liberal leadership, he might just be their best bet. Realistically, the next election is Frydenberg’s last chance to re-enter politics. Polling in Kooyong will be intense as he weighs his future.
Here’s the burning question: Is Josh Frydenberg the answer to the Liberals’ prayers, or is he a relic of a bygone era? What do you think? Let’s spark a debate in the comments—agree or disagree, your voice matters!
